Private home prices Q3 2026: what URA’s flash estimate says

Private home prices rose 1.4% in the third quarter of 2026 (Q3 2026) on the previous quarter, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) flash estimate released on 1 October 2026; the second quarter’s rise was 0.5%. Non-landed prices rose 0.9% and landed prices 2.8%, while non-landed prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR) rose 2.2%.

These are preliminary figures, compiled from data up to mid-September, and URA says it will update the statistics on 23 October 2026 when it releases its full set of Q3 real estate statistics. URA’s media releases page listed no later price release when we checked on 17 October 2026, so this page cites the flash estimate, not a final figure. In our reading, the figure describes the private residential market as a whole, not the price of any project, so for a household researching a new launch it is a dated backdrop for your notes and cannot say whether a particular launch price is high or low.

All figures are from URA’s flash estimate release of 1 October 2026 unless stated.

• Overall index: +1.4% in Q3 2026 on the previous quarter, after +0.5% in Q2 2026.
• Non-landed homes: +0.9% (Q2: −0.1%). By region: Core Central Region (CCR) −0.1%, Rest of Central Region (RCR) +0.2%, OCR +2.2%.
• Landed homes: +2.8% (Q2: +2.5%).
• Data cut-off: “transaction prices submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up till mid-September”.
• Transaction volume: 4,296 sale transactions up to mid-September, against 6,148 in Q2 2026; URA says sale transaction volume decreased by about 30% quarter on quarter.
• Next release: URA says the statistics will be updated on 23 October 2026 with its full set of real estate statistics for Q3 2026. URA’s data release calendar (page showing “Last updated on 4 September 2026”) lists “Quarterly Property Market Updates” for 3Q2026 data on 23 October.
• Supply: URA says 4,745 private residential units will be launched under the Confirmed List in the second half of 2026, bringing the full-year Confirmed List supply to 9,320 units.

How reliable is a flash estimate?

URA says: “Past data have shown that the flash estimates may differ from actual changes. The public is advised to interpret the flash estimates with caution.” The two earlier quarters of 2026 show how far they differed, comparing each flash estimate with the final figure URA published weeks later:

• Q1 2026: the flash estimate of 1 April gave overall +0.3%, non-landed +1.0%, landed −1.8% and OCR +1.3%. The final statistics of 24 April gave overall +0.9%, non-landed +1.3%, landed −0.4% and OCR +2.2%.
• Q2 2026: the flash estimate of 1 July gave overall +0.5%, non-landed −0.1%, landed +2.6% and OCR −0.2%. The final statistics of 24 July gave overall +0.5%, non-landed −0.1%, landed +2.5% and OCR −0.1%.

In Q1 the headline index moved by 0.6 percentage points between flash and final, non-landed by 0.3, landed by 1.4 and OCR by 0.9. In Q2 the four figures compared above each moved by 0.1 percentage point or less. Those differences are our arithmetic from URA’s figures. Two quarters are far too few to say what a typical revision looks like. Our takeaway is narrower: write a flash figure down with its label and replace it when the final arrives.

What does the index cover, and what does it not?

URA says the flash estimate is compiled from “transaction prices submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers” up to mid-September. URA reports non-landed prices in three regions (CCR, RCR and OCR) and landed prices separately, so check which region a project sits in before you compare it with a regional figure. Our reading, not URA’s: because the index is a market-wide measure, its movement need not match the movement in any one project, and it cannot tell you what a specific project’s price list should look like. URA’s property data pages list data on prices, rentals and pipeline supply of private residential properties and Executive Condominiums; its REALIS service is a subscription at a fee.

The volume figure also needs care. URA’s footnote counts Q3 sales only up to mid-September, about two weeks short of the end of the quarter (our arithmetic), and compares them with 6,148 for Q2. URA’s Q2 flash release reported 5,420 sales for Q2 up to mid-June, yet the Q3 release gives Q2’s total as 6,148. Likewise its Q1 flash release reported 4,041 sales up to mid-March, described as a fall of about 40% on the previous quarter, while its Q2 flash release gave Q1’s total as 5,413. Our reading: a count to mid-quarter is not comparable with a full-quarter total, so the roughly 30% fall URA reports for Q3 probably compares a part-quarter with a full one. The 23 October statistics will give the full quarter.

What else did URA publish about supply and sales?

• Confirmed List: URA says 4,745 private residential units will be launched under the Confirmed List in the second half of 2026 and 9,320 for the full year. It puts the total supply of private residential units, including Executive Condominium (EC) units, expected to be completed over the next few years at around 60,600. Our reading: these are government land sales and completion-pipeline figures, not homes open for sale to buyers today.
• 29 September 2026: URA released two sites under the second-half 2026 Government Land Sales Programme. The Confirmed List site at East Coast Road can potentially yield about 85 residential units, and its tender closes at 12 noon on 3 December 2026. The site at Serangoon North View is available for application under the Reserve List and can potentially yield 235 residential units. Our GLS tender calendar tracks the open tenders.
• Q2 final statistics (24 July 2026): developers sold 2,141 private residential units excluding ECs in Q2, against 2,013 in Q1, and there were 3,813 resale transactions. URA’s pipeline, unsold and vacancy counts, and what they do and do not say about homes on sale, are in our private housing supply note, which will also be revised when the Q3 figures appear.

What should you read on 23 October?

URA’s Q2 final statistics reported the lines below, so look for the same ones when URA publishes its full Q3 statistics on 23 October 2026:

1. The final overall index, and whether it differs from the flash +1.4%.
2. The CCR, RCR and OCR figures and the landed figure, against the flash estimates above.
3. Developers’ sales for Q3 against 2,141 in Q2 (excluding ECs), and resale transactions against 3,813.
4. The pipeline and unsold counts, set against the end-June figures in our supply note.

How should you record it in your research file?

A line you can copy into your research file: “Q3 2026, URA flash estimate, 1 October 2026: private residential price index +1.4%, OCR non-landed +2.2%, preliminary, replace after 23 October.” Put it beside, not instead of, the dated price list and floor area for the project you are considering, as in our project comparison guide. For the costs that sit on top of any price, see our stamp duty guide; for projects with a dated status, see the pipeline overview; and for more dated market notes, see the research topic.

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